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The switch would risk a backlash from Democrats and deficit hawks. “This decision would represent a huge break in precedent, would weaken budget discipline to allow Congress to add over half a trillion dollars to the debt,” the nonpartisan Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget said in a letter earlier this month.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, expects leaders will be pondering how to avoid a default as lawmakers are trying to head off a government shutdown, she said.

“Both are really bad—but default is unimaginably bad,” MacGuineas said. “It’s territory we haven’t entered before. I’m an optimist that we will get both of these done. But it’s not a clear path to getting them to the finish line for either of them yet.”

"I think people should be angry," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Our political system is breaking down in ways that are having real economic costs, and most people don't realize what's happening."

Lawmakers could change how the deficit gets calculated in future years by treating tax breaks that are set to expire this year as permanent. This could add $450 billion to the baseline over 10 years, said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Tax and budget experts also said there are reasons why retroactive tax changes may not create economic growth. They say such changes would add to the cost of the bill, but would not be an effective way to encourage new spending and investments.

“It has all of the costs of the tax cuts but none of the economic benefits,” said Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President Maya MacGuineas, who added that “you don’t make investments in the rear-view mirror.”

Maya MacGuineas, President of The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, stressed the importance of coming to a consensus on the debt ceiling as soon as possible in an editorial for The Hill. “There are nations that both officially and unofficially use the greenback, and many others peg the value of their money to U.S. dollars. So why, under any calculation, would a politician risk or even threaten to risk this standing by refusing to raise the debt ceiling and chance default on U.S. obligations?” MacGuineas said.

On June 15, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.), policy co-chair of the Blue Dogs, sent a letter to lobbyists, think tanks and advocacy groups, inviting them to listening sessions to give them a chance to express what they would like to see in a bipartisan tax plan. More than 15 groups accepted the request and met with Lipinski in late July, including the AFL-CIO, the Tax Policy Center and the National Federation of Independent Business, according to people familiar with the matter.

The group has also met with representatives from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, according to Democratic aides.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) is urging the Senate Budget Committee to avoid using “gimmicks” as it crafts a budget resolution to facilitate tax-reform legislation.

CRFB, which has bipartisan leadership and supports fiscal responsibility, said the Senate panel should produce a resolution that uses the traditional current-law baseline for scoring legislation, rather than a current-policy baseline that assumes temporary tax breaks will be extended.

"Adopting a 'choose your own baseline' practice would set a dangerous precedent that would allow Congress to hide the true cost of massive debt-busting entitlement spending or tax changes in the future," CRFB president Maya MacGuineas wrote in a letter to Budget Committee Chairman Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) on Wednesday.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which has long pushed for sustainable spending and debt management, this week released a set of proposals that, while falling short of the massive changes to the tax code and entitlement spending that former president Barack Obama and former House Speaker John Boehner once contemplated, would at least begin moving the country in that direction.

“Unfortunately, policymakers are far from negotiating a ‘grand bargain’ to fix the debt,” CRFB concedes in the paper released Thursday. “Instead, many are pursuing policies that would further increase debt by cutting taxes under the guise of tax reform and increasing defense and non-defense discretionary spending above current law caps.

"They’ve created an approach that gives them enough power to have real influence on the outcomes," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, of Meadows’ caucus. "But there’s a real difference between being able to affect the outcome and really drive an agenda to where you want it to be."

The budget procedure experts I spoke with thought the second interpretation — that reconciliation lasts until a new budget resolution is passed — was the most plausible, but acknowledged there’s considerable uncertainty on the question. “Many think Sept 30. Others think not until new resolution passes or 115^th Congress adjourns,” Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and a leading budget procedure expert, says.

The idea of eliminating the state and local tax deductions would be controversial and possibly unpopular as Americans in 43 states would lose the option to deduct what they pay in taxes from their federal return, which lowers their overall tax bill.

While eliminating those deductions could save the federal government an enormous amount of money, it benefits Americans in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut the most. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, about a third of the tax benefit goes to those three states.

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President Maya MacGuineas weighs in on the debate over tax reform.

If it does, Trump will have to decide if he's willing to veto a wall-less bill. He hasn't given any clear indication on this. But conservative lawmakers think he's willing to stand strong on this front. After all, as the Washington Post pointed out last week, the wall is the clearest victory Trump could win on immigration, a typically difficult issue that he's put at the heart of his presidency. It's also the manifestation of his self-image as a builder.

"He is very serious about it," said Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget President MacGuineas. "But he will [have to] evaluate the chance of his veto being successful and quite possibly decide it just isn't worth" the risk of a failed block.